I just read a great piece about Norway. Small country on the left hand bit of mainland Scandinavia. Has lots of fjiords. And blondes. And herring. Like all Scandi-countries. Probably has lots of murders too because its dark half the year and all that Scandi-noire stuff, Girls with Dragon Tattoos, Wallander, The Bridge, must be based on some kind of Abba-esque reality, surely?

Norway is not in the EU. Never has been. Goes its own way… ish. Is ranked 1st on some (probably meaningless) global prosperity index. And thus is the ‘model’ for maverick Europeanism of the non-EU variety. How ‘we’ could be, should we leave. Except…

Norway’s never been in the EU.

Twice had referenda, twice blew those Eurocrat bastards out of the water. And yet they trade extensively with Europe and have never once failed to adopt any European laws. And as ‘Europe’ is nothing if not the world’s most efficient and costly law-making machine, that amounts to 10,000 legal acts since 1994. Norway allows free, passportless passage from ‘Europe’ and allows Euro people to work there without visas. They are thus part of the Schengen Zone, which we aren’t.

So Norway would appear to be a totally EU nation in all but the fact that they’re not. They’re outside. And thus pay the EU £680 million a year. Whereas Britain, less of an EU adherent, but ‘in’, pay £8.5billion!!!! a year. That’s fair. 10,000 laws don’t come cheap. Even though we hate 9,999 of them and spend another 8 billion a year trying to overturn them.

Ok, so let’s become Norway. The best of all possible worlds. Aligned to the EU but not part of it and thus not robbed by it every year and bound by its often stupid rules, regulations and laws. I’ll change my name to Oleg, see if I can find a fjiord somewhere near Bromley, and fish for herring. Brilliant. Job done.

The difference is; we’re IN. Have been for over 40 years. And if we come out, our status would be vastly different from those Norwegies who’ve never been in. We’ll need to be punished. And in a way big enough to deter half the 27 other member states from jumping ship too. It would have to be shown that leaving the EU is like leaving the Church of Scientology, leaving the Mafia, leaving ISIS; generally not a great idea. And certainly not one without repercussions and costs.

And so although the Norway model is appealing, and Norwegian models are particularly appealing, we simply can’t ever be ‘them’. So indeed we have to look at the real costs of leaving. And no-one knows what they might be. Not a clue. Not Cameron. Certainly not Boris who’s totally lost the plot, not Farage, no-one.

Thus I look at simple short-termism. How will leaving the EU affect ME? And what will definitely happen, because its already started, is that the pound will fall and share prices will drastically drop. So my pension ‘pot’ will take another fucking ‘hit’. Maybe not quite as big as the one it took in 2008 but along those lines. And my holidays will become more expensive.

Selfish? Short-sighted?? Yes, all of the above. But as no-one can come up with any more rational and coherent reasons for in or out, that don’t predict World War 3, beheading the Queen, post-nuclear apocalypse, a world without croissants, that’s all I have left.

At least until tomorrow when it’ll all change again.

Happy pre-referendum days

A xxxx